Democrats hoping to regain a foothold on power in Washington got a jolt of optimism Tuesday when their party won emphatic victories in governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey, each outcome suggesting the political mood is turning against President Donald Trump.
The two contests represented the most significant measures to date of the public response to Trump’s second term. In both cases Democrats, while expected to win, exceeded projections as voters in each state swung left compared to 2024 and rejected Republicans who tied themselves closely to the president.
The state’s gubernatorial races frequently foreshadow the direction of midterm elections that arrive the following year. Democrats hope that trend holds as they eye the 2026 campaign, when they aim to win back the US House and potentially the Senate, and to gain some way to check Trump’s nearly unfettered power.
The victories show that Americans believe “Republican policies have failed them,” House Minority Leader
“The cost of living in this country is out of control, and Donald Trump has not done a damn thing to change it,” Jeffries said, later adding, “It’s over for these people, and we’re going to see it today and we’re going to see it during the midterm elections next November.”
One current and one former member of his caucus provided the victories, with ex-Rep.
Spanberger was on track to potentially land the biggest Democratic win in a Virginia governor’s race since at least 1985. Every county in Virginia was projected to shift leftward.
Sherrill’s race was expected to be closer, but she won easily, and early results suggested that many of the Latino voters who shifted to Trump in 2024 either slid back to Democrats, or stayed home. Trump came within 6 percentage points of winning New Jersey last year, Sherrill was on track to potentially win by double digits.
Democrats also won a significant boost in California, where a redistricting referendum passed that will make the state’s map more favorable to them, and offset some GOP redistricting gains in other states.
Republicans responded to the results by pointing to the New York mayoral contest, where Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani handily prevailed.
“The Marxists are taking over their party,” House Speaker
Democrats argued that the range of winning candidates — from the social-media savvy Mamdani in a big city to the more careful and moderate Spanberger and Sherrill — show the party’s range of appeal one year after they suffered a stinging rejection, and that voters are frustrated with Trump, and rising prices.
Tuesday’s voting came as Trump stretches the power of the presidency, making him an all-consuming figure, and as Democrats grope for a new message and style after being roundly rejected in 2024.
Bellwether States
Virginia and New Jersey — which both vote reliably Democratic in presidential races but frequently elect Republican governors — host the only major contests in the years immediately following presidential elections. That often makes them into gauges of how voters see a new administration, and the political winds ahead of midterm elections.
Starting in 1981, one party has swept both races seven times. In five of those instances the victorious party gained House seats the following year.
The last three such sweeps presaged waves. Democrats added 40 House seats in 2018 and 30 in 2006 after winning both gubernatorial races. Republicans captured both races in 2009 and gained 63 seats the following year.
“Tonight we sent a message,” Spanberger said at her victory party Tuesday night. She said voters elected her because she focused on lowering costs, rather than “chaos.”
“Here in New Jersey,” Sherrill told supporters, “we know that this nation has not ever been, nor will it ever be ruled by kings.”
Democrats hailed the results as a reflection on Trump’s political weakness, pointing to polls showing dire approval ratings for the president, and poor marks on the economy, the issue that powered him to a second term, and which Spanberger, Sherrill, and Mamdani all emphasized.
One survey released this week by CNN showed Trump with a 37% approval rating, while 63% disapproved of his work as president. More than two-thirds of Americans are unhappy with the economy, the poll found.
The boost for Democrats was all the more pointed because the gubernatorial wins came from two candidates who were part of the 2018 wave that helped the party recover from Trump’s first presidential victory. Democrats hope their victories Tuesday are another harbinger of a return to power.
In temperament and politics, Sherrill and Spanberger represent a stark difference from Mamdani, who is more far-left and has a more attention-grabbing approach.
The GOP is eager to make Mamdani and his policies into political lightning rods.
The House GOP campaign arm vowed to link Democratic House candidates to “Mamdani and the far-left mob who are now running the show.”
They also emphasized that many voters still have a sour view of Democrats overall. Some 67% of Democrats are frustrated by their own party, a Pew Research Center poll found in September.
“Every House Democrat is foolishly complicit in their party’s collapse, and voters will make them pay in 2026,” said a statement from Mike Marinella, a spokesman for Republicans’ House campaign arm.
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