Ballot-Box Warm-Up
Elections next week in a handful of states will help politicians figure out what to prepare for when control of Congress is on the line. Are people engaged or turned off? Hopeful or defiant? Show up or stay home? “These races in 2025 are really a pulse check on voters ahead of the 2026 midterms,” said Heather Williams, the president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.
Virginia and New Jersey will elect governors on Tuesday. Californians will decide whether to detour from a nonpartisan redistricting tradition. Texas will begin to fill a congressional seat, and some states have legislative contests. It’s the biggest tranche of elections since Donald Trump reclaimed the presidency.
In Virginia, ex-Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) is a clear favorite over Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) to succeed outgoing Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R). New Jersey’s governor’s race looks tighter. There, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) faces ex-assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R) in the contest to replace term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D).
Virginia Democrats also are favored to increase their 51-48 edge in the state House, which will have an impact when new congressional maps are considered next year.
The biggest redistricting prize for Democrats is California, where voters are expected to pass Proposition 50 and implement more Democrat-friendly maps that could flip as many as five Republican seats, a move designed to counter Republican gerrymanders in Texas and other states.
Voters in a vacant Houston congressional district are likely to whittle a 16-candidate special election field down to a two-candidate runoff that would be held early next year. Texas’s 18th District has been vacant since March, when Sylvester Turner (D) died.
And there’s one local contest you’ll see a lot about on TV: New York City will choose its next mayor. — Greg Giroux
Shutdown Politics
Tuesday’s election also could have an immediate impact on the politics of the federal shutdown, Lillianna Byington and Maeve Sheehey report.
Gubernatorial victories by Democrats would bolster the party’s arguments that Trump’s policies are unpopular and could further hurt congressional Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections. GOP victories — or close results — could enhance Republicans’ case that Democrats were on the wrong side of public opinion when they refused to accept a clean continuing resolution, shutting the government down.
“Hopefully after next week on Tuesday, that seems to be another inflection point, and maybe that’ll free some people up to be able to vote yes,” Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters. Read More
Trump is urging Senate Republicans to just disregard Democrats, saying in a late-night social media post they “HAVE GONE STONE COLD ‘CRAZY,’” Skylar Woodhouse reports. As he has before, Trump urged the GOP, which holds 53 seats, to dump the filibuster rule that gives the requires 60 votes to get legislation to the floor. Senate Majority Leader John suggested earlier this month that the party wouldn’t do that. Read More
Jonathan Tamari looks at the shutdown’s broader political picture and the balance of power in Trump’s Washington. Shutdown-focused cases are also being considered in court.
Also Read:
- Judge’s Order Saps Trump’s Legal Case for Shutdown Layoffs
- Judge Blasts ‘Political Game’ Over US Food Aid Suspension
- Food Stamp Limits Take Full Force as Aid Nears Shutdown Lapse
- Airlines Side With Republican ‘Clean CR’ Call to End Shutdown
- Older Americans Face Obamacare Cost Burdens in Shutdown Fight
Redistricting Vote
In Columbus, Ohio, a state commission is voting today on a new congressional map that would put more Republican turf into the districts now represented by Democrats Marcy Kaptur and Greg Landsman, Giroux reports.
It’s a compromise configuration that appears on track for approval.
Giroux explains that both parties had incentives to strike a deal. Democrats could have ended up with a map that added a bigger GOP presence to three seats rather than just two of the state’s 15 districts. And Republicans get to avoid a legal challenge or a Democrat-funded referendum campaign. Read More
Tariff Power
He’s allowed to change his mind, of course, but Trump has said he might go to the Supreme Court and watch in person when justices hear arguments Wednesday about the limits of his tariff powers.
The president has said the tariffs are legal under a 1977 law that gives the president tools to address national emergencies. The Court of International Trade and the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit both said he’s wrong about that.
“The statute bestows significant authority on the president to undertake a number of actions in response to a declared national emergency, but none of these actions explicitly include the power to impose tariffs, duties, or the like, or the power to tax,” the appeals court said.
If the administration loses, it could be forced to pay back many of the levies, which could trigger refund disputes with suppliers, customers, and tax authorities around the world, Caleb Harshberger reports. Read More
See Also:
- Senate Snubs Trump on Trade in Third Anti-Tariff Vote This Week
- Chinese Exporters Bet That Xi-Trump Tariff Truce Won’t Last
- China Tariff Probe to Continue Despite Trump-Xi Deal, Greer Says
Tribal Hearing, Crypto Talks
If you follow BGOV’s coverage of Capitol Hill lobbying, you may recall Kate Ackley‘s scoop about how a tribe seeking full federal recognition used some modern genealogy research to connect one of its members to an ancestor of Trump’s youngest daughter, Tiffany.
On Wednesday, legislation to recognize the Native American Lumbee Tribe (
Our Capitol Hill team next week also will be keeping an eye on bipartisan talks meant to deliver a broad crypto regulation package by the end of the year.
Zach C. Cohen and Steven T. Dennis report that Senate Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) and panel member Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) are trying to finalize their part of a bill establishing a regulatory regime. Boozman, whose panel has jurisdiction over digital assets treated as commodities, even teased the possibility of a committee vote on their portion before Thanksgiving.
Senate Banking Committee members also have ongoing bipartisan negotiations.
Separately, Senate Finance Committee members of both parties are discussing changes to how the tax code treats digital assets.Read More
And Zach Williams reports that a Senate committee will hold a confirmation hearing Thursday on a National Transportation Safety Board nominee, as the firing of a Democratic board member is being contested in court.
Democrats on the Senate Commerce Committee say consideration of John DeLeeuw’s nomination threatens to undermine the investigation of the firing of the board’s vice chair, Democrat Alvin Brown. Read More
Before You Go
Meaningful Absence: The president gave the world an early glimpse of just how loosely he was planning to enforce new US sanctions on Moscow, Magdalena Del Valle reports. China is the single-largest buyer of Russian crude, and in his high-profile meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Trump said, “we didn’t really discuss the oil.” Read More
Island Unease: As the Trump administration expands its anti-drug offensive off the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia, the deployment is turning economically vulnerable nations like Grenada and Trinidad and Tobago into uncomfortable accomplices. It has also raised fears in the US territory of Puerto Rico, where most of the 10,000 troops now in the Caribbean theater are thought to be stationed. Read More
Epstein Effort: Previously unreported documents and emails show federal prosecutors expanded their probe into Jeffrey Epstein’s sex crimes in 2007 to include potential charges of money laundering that one former law enforcement official said turned tens of millions of dollars in questionable transactions. The probe ultimately ended after senior officials in the US attorney’s office directed prosecutors to begin plea negotiations. Read More
New Priority: Trump is cutting the limit on refugees the US resettles to 7,500 for the upcoming fiscal year, while prioritizing White South Africans, reports Hadriana Lowenkron. It’s a sharp break from the nation’s traditional policy of accepting tens of thousands fleeing conflict and persecution annually. Read More
Halloween 2025: A haunted house attraction dubbed Pennhurst Asylum about an hour’s drive northwest of Philadelphia may be headed to the great beyond, to be replaced by a data center to serve the artificial intelligence boom, Dawn Lim reports. Read More
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Greg Giroux in Washington also contributed to this story.
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