Private Credit’s Cracks Widened Before Turmoil: Credit Weekly

The companies that get private credit loans are looking increasingly wobbly and banks are among those that could eventually be on the hook for losses.

Many companies getting direct loans from private lenders are struggling to produce cash, by at least one key measure: At the end of 2024, more than 40% of borrowers had negative free cash flow from their businesses, the International Monetary Fund warned in a report this past week. That’s up from closer to 25% at the end of 2021.

Borrowers that aren’t generating enough cash flow are at greater risk of defaulting, a particular concern ...