Voters in Kentucky and Mississippi will decide on Tuesday whether to re-elect their governors, decisions that will determine the fate of one-party power in the mostly red states.
In Kentucky, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is seeking a second term against Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R). If the incumbent falls, Kentucky would lose partisan balance because the GOP controls both chambers of the Legislature.
In Mississippi, the opposite could happen.
Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is seeking a second term against Democrat Brandon Presley, a state utility commissioner and cousin of rock ‘n’ roll legend Elvis Presley. If the incumbent is ousted, Mississippi would gain partisan balance since the GOP also controls the Legislature there.
“If both those flips happen in tandem, it would sort of speak to how idiosyncratic gubernatorial elections could be,” said J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
The results will echo beyond those two states, as candidates planning their 2024 strategies examine which issues and messages resonate with voters.
The Republican gubernatorial candidates have tried to run in tandem against their rivals and against President Joe Biden, who lost in both states in 2020 — Former President Donald Trump won 62.1% of the vote in Kentucky and 57.6% of the vote in Mississippi.
A Reeves ad, for instance, tries to rally GOP turnout by hitting the partisan hot buttons of immigration and transgender youth.
“When Joe Biden left the border open, Tate Reeves backed Trump’s wall. When Biden pushed a transgender agenda in schools, Tate Reeves stopped him in our state. That’s why liberal billionaires are flooding in money against Tate Reeves,” the narrator says in one of the incumbent’s TV spots.
In one of his campaign spots, Cameron, who’s trying to become the first Black Republican elected governor of any US state, says “Washington liberals want to change our country for the worst.”
Other TV spots try to tie Beshear to Biden on crime, and show Trump at a Cameron rally in Lexington, Ky.
“Republicans want to nationalize this race while Democrats want to localize it,” said Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
Cook’s ratings give the incumbents an edge, with Kentucky rated as leaning Democratic and Mississippi rated as leaning Republican. Sabato’s Crystal Ball agrees there’s a Kentucky lean toward Beshear and ranks the Mississippi gubernatorial race as likely Republican, a less competitive group.
Elvis’s Kin Raises Favre Scandal
In Mississippi, Presley has largely focused his campaign on the ability of Medicaid expansion — something rejected by incumbent Reeves — to help struggling rural hospitals and the health outcomes of the working poor.
“On day one as governor I’ll expand Medicaid to keep our hospitals open and our people healthy,” Presley says in one of his TV spots.
To steer attention to his desire to cut grocery taxes and car taxes, he cut an actual car in half.
He also has been trying to connect the lack of Medicaid expansion with a scandal that dates to when Reeves was lieutenant governor. Money meant to be spent on aid to the poor went to unrelated projects that included a new volleyball facility at the University of Southern Mississippi. Former NFL quarterback Brett Favre was involved in discussions for the facility at the school, his alma mater where his daughter played volleyball. Favre has denied wrongdoing.
Democrats Have More to Lose Than GOP in 2023 Races for Governor
Reeves, who is one of the least popular governors according to Morning Consult polling data, talks about his record of reducing state income taxes and raising teacher pay.
“I really think every day about jobs. How do we bring not only more jobs to Mississippi but how do we bring better paying jobs to Mississippi,” Reeves said during an interview posted Tuesday on his social media. “It is something that we focus on. Jobs are important.”
In a Magnolia Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll conducted Sept. 27-Oct. 2, those surveyed preferred Reeves, 51% to 43%.
“This is, for Mississippi, a pretty close race and I think the Medicaid issue is one of the things that has given Mr. Presley slightly higher numbers that he’s kind of enjoyed relative to other Democrats who’ve run in the past few electoral cycles,” said Brian Shoup, head of the Department of Political Science and Public Administration at Mississippi State University. “I think it’s causing people to give him a second look.”
UVA’s Coleman said Democrats “have a good candidate with Brandon Presley, but it’s Mississippi, and at the end of the day, it’s a state where 90 % of Blacks vote Democratic and about 90% of whites vote Republican.”
That makes turnout the key. Mississippi has a larger percentage of Black residents than any other state at 38%, and “the way Presley could win and pull the upset is if African-American turnout is increased while Republican turnout is decreased,” Taylor said.
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The Democratic Governors Association has put $3.75 million into Presley’s campaign, which was a little behind Reeves in online and broadcast advertising, $11 million versus $10.3 million, according to data compiled by AdImpact.
DGA’s chair, New Jersey Gov. Patrick Murphy, said the size of that group’s backing shows an upset is possible. “We don’t chase rainbows,” he said during a Pluribus News online discussion about the gubernatorial races. “This one is really tight and we’re going to do what we need to do.”
Campaign finance filings show that Reeves entered the home stretch far ahead in advertising and resources, with about $4.2 million on hand as of Sept. 30, compared with about $1.8 million for Presley’s campaign.
Kentucky’s Beshear, who’s one of the most popular governors according to Morning Consult polling data, has dominated in fundraising. His campaign had about $1.9 million on hand for the final sprint, according to an Oct. 11 campaign finance filing, while Cameron’s reported about $968,000 banked. on hand, according to his filing at that same time.
“He’s run laps over Cameron,” Coleman said of Beshear’s fundraising.
The son of former Gov. Steve Beshear (D) “came into this card game with a really nice draw of the hand,” said Stephen Voss, associate professor of political science at the University of Kentucky.
Before the election season, Beshear had won notice for his handling of natural disasters such as flooding in eastern Kentucky and tornadoes in western Kentucky. One of his campaign spots shows the tornado-damaged church where his grandfather and great-grandfather were preachers.
As the campaign progressed, abortion became more of an issue in both Kentucky and Mississippi, where the Presley campaign spent more than $500,000 on ads telling voters “I’m pro-life and I don’t support sex changes for minors.”
Runoff Possible
Mississippi might not have a governor-elect next week.
Independent candidate Gwendolyn Gray withdrew from the race and endorsed Presley, but too late to have her name removed from ballots, so it’s possible that both Presley and Reeves would fall short of the 50% mark. If that happens, a runoff election will take place Nov. 28.
“I think in a state like Mississippi, a Democrat has a ceiling. Can Presley reach that ceiling? I think he can, but getting over it to get to 50% is hard,” said Taylor. It’s “very hard to beat incumbent governors.”
The Reeves, Presley, Beshear, and Cameron campaigns didn’t respond to requests for comment.
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