Global Oil Market Faces ‘Heavy Surplus’ in 2025, Macquarie Warns

The global oil market will flip to a “heavy surplus” next year, with higher supplies from non-OPEC nations, coupled with sluggish demand, limiting the need for OPEC+ to ease output curbs, according to Macquarie Group Ltd.

• Tightness in the current quarter is fading, and balance forecasts suggest a heavy oversupply across the next five quarters, analysts including Marcus Garvey say in a commodity outlook
• At present, OPEC+ member Saudi Arabia is unlikely to pursue a renewed “price war” with non-OPEC producers, they say
• Still, given the outlook for gluts, prices may drop more than modeled, and “we see potential for ...