Polymarket Iran Bets Draw Fresh Dispute and Insider Scrutiny (1)

Bets on a ceasefire between the US and Iran have sent more than $170 million coursing through Polymarket, making it one of the largest geopolitical wagers in the short history of prediction markets.

Now, the aftermath is raising the same questions that have dogged the platforms for months: whether bettors are trading on inside information, and whether the platforms can cleanly settle the contracts they broker.

A series of well-timed Iran wagers placed on Polymarket by freshly created anonymous accounts have generated hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits so far, prompting analysts to scour the trades for tell-tale signs ...