World’s Most Important Market Sends a Warning: Matthew Winkler

Financial markets are neither ideological nor do they have an agenda. They’re dispassionate observers, indispensable for helping to discern whether assets are cheap, expensive or fair based on current and historical relative values. So it’s worth taking notice when the $30 trillion market for US government securities - the one that guides every other and helps set the cost of money worldwide – is sending an alarming message about the outlook for inflation.

For all the criticism the Federal Reserve received for being “behind the curve” in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, US Treasuries never failed to signal elevated inflation ...