Read the Tea Leaves After These Primaries: Ballots & Boundaries

Ask a political professional about knock-down, drag-out primaries and chances are you’ll get A) a rose-tinted response about the winner emerging well-rehearsed and ready or B) gripes about time and money that could have been spent attacking the November opposition.

Primaries between well-resourced rivals also can preview coming attractions, since they show what’s resonating with motivated voters and steer attention to candidate flaws.

Our road map shows some US House primaries that are especially worth watching because of their potential impact on the general election (and therefore on congressional control), beginning with these four:

• On March 5, California’s 22nd District, a seat being defended by Rep. David Valadao (R), and 47th District, where Rep. Katie Porter (D) isn’t seeking re-election.
• Also on March 5: North Carolina’s 1st District, a seat held by Rep. Don Davis (D).
• And a big one on March 19 in Ohio’s 9th District, where Republicans will decide who they’ll run against Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D).

READ MORE from Greg Giroux

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UTAH: Curtis Is In
Utah’s primary season got a lot more interesting with run-for-Senate decisions by two familiar names.

Now in the race for the Republican nomination: Rep. John Curtis, who’s represented Utah’s 3rd District since 2017, and Brent Hatch, whose dad Orrin held the Senate seat opening up with the retirement of Sen. Mitt Romney (R). The primary is June 25. — Greg Giroux

MONTANA: Differentiation
Sen. Jon Tester’s newest TV ad dings the Biden administration on gun policy.

Tester’s spot has a teacher saying Joe Biden’s Education Department was “trying to block funding for gun safety and hunter education classes” before Tester stepped up and “got his Republican colleagues on board to stop Biden’s policy and defend our Second Amendment rights.”

Biden in October signed the Protecting Hunting Heritage and Education Act (Public Law 118-17), which clarifies that schools can use federal aid for archery, hunting, and other shooting sports. Republican challenger Tim Sheehy’s campaign said Tester is “trying to pull a fast one on Montanans” after voting for a 2022 gun-safety law (Public Law 117-159) that included a prohibition on the use of federal funds for the acquisition of dangerous weapons.

The ad began airing this week in Montana, which Biden lost by 16 points in 2020 and isn’t likely to carry this November. It’s the most Republican state where a Democratic senator is seeking re-election. — Greg Giroux

RETIREMENTS: Lamborn, Luetkemeyer Leaving
Two more House Republicans said they’ll make the 118th Congress their last.

Rep Doug Lamborn (Colo.) said he won’t seek re-election in the 5th District in and around Colorado Springs. Donald Trump won the district by 10 points in the 2020 election, though historically Republican Colorado Springs elected an independent mayor last year.

Missouri Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer’s retirement announcement was surprising because he’s a senior member of the Financial Services Committee and had been interested in succeeding retiring Chair Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) as the panel’s top Republican.

Luetkemeyer’s 3rd District, which includes the state capital of Jefferson City and most of St. Charles County near St. Louis, backed Trump by 26 points, so the open-seat Republican primary will be the race to watch there. — Greg Giroux

BGOV OnPoint: House Retirements, Race Ratings, and More

NEVADA: McCarthy’s Candidate Exits
The best-funded Republican opposing Rep. Susie Lee (D) in Nevada’s competitive 3rd District has left the race. State Rep. Heidi Kasama said she would instead seek re-election to the Nevada legislature. Kasama had raised $337,000 through September from donors including Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) just before he was ousted as speaker.

Republicans in the race include conservative policy analyst Drew Johnson and ex-state Sen. Elizabeth Helgelien, who’s touted endorsements from hard-right figures including Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) and ex-Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa). Lee was re-elected 52%-48% in 2022. — Greg Giroux

So Special

Several districts will hold special elections in the coming months to fill US House vacancies:

New York’s 3rd: A Feb. 13 election will choose the successor to expelled ex-Rep. George Santos (R). If ex-Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) beats Nassau County legislator Mazi Pilip (R), Democrats will be within four seats of a majority.

Ohio’s 6th: A June 11 special election will fill the seat of Rep. Bill Johnson (R), who’s resigning Jan. 21 to become president of Youngstown State University. The key decision will be made before that, though, in a March 19 special primary that coincides with the regularly scheduled primary for a two-year term.

California’s 20th: Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has until Jan. 14 to set an election schedule in the heavily Republican Central Valley district of McCarthy, who resigned Dec. 31.

New York’s 26th: Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) will set a special election after Rep. Brian Higgins (D) resigns in early February. Whomever local Democratic officials nominate will be a shoo-in to succeed Higgins in the Buffalo-area district, a Democratic stronghold.

OHIO: Court Challenge
The League of Women Voters initiated a legal challenge against new limitations on who can drop off a ballot in Ohio. The plaintiff is a woman with limited mobility whose caregiver is now unable to handle her absentee ballot without fear of felony prosecution.

The lawsuit argues that Ohio is violating the Americans with Disabilities Act with “extreme burdens to vote that voters without disabilities will never face.” — Ohio Capital Journal

Resources

• Our past coverage: BGOV Archive and BLAW Archive
• Tracking Departures in the US House and Senate
• Litigation Trackers: ABC News, Loyola Law School, and Brennan Center
• BGOV OnPoint: US House Election Landscape
• BGOV OnPoint: US Senate Election Landscape

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