In less than two weeks since President Donald Trump signed his new tax law, Rep.
Amid the onslaught, Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to visit Bresnahan’s working-class district in northeastern Pennsylvania Wednesday to tout the law’s benefits, underscoring the importance of the swing district and the fight to shape perceptions of the law.
The national attention makes Bresnahan a prominent test case of how Democrats hope to turn Republicans’ centerpiece legislation against the lawmakers who voted for it — and how the GOP plans to push back as the party wrestles for control of the House and Senate in next year’s midterm elections.
Bresnahan’s mountainous district centered on Scranton is a foundational piece of Trump’s coalition and the GOP’s wider electoral success. The white, working-class region with deep union roots long supported Democrats but swung sharply toward Trump in 2016 and has kept going. It’s emblematic of similar areas nationwide that helped the president reshape the Republican Party and US politics more widely. Trump won Bresnahan’s district, the birthplace of former President Joe Biden, by nearly 9 percentage points last year and frequently campaigns there.
But with early polling showing Trump’s new law deeply unpopular, Democrats believe the measure’s cuts will help them win back some blue collar voters, who they say will bear the brunt of steep reductions in spending on Medicaid, the health program for people who are poor or disabled. Republicans argue that beneath the headline poll numbers are policies Americans strongly support — especially an extension of Trump’s 2017 tax breaks.
“We represent a swing district, so there are a lot of mixed opinions,” Bresnahan said in an interview. “I have plenty of people who have reached out to thank me for supporting this bill, but I also have a lot of people who may not be big fans.”
The GOP freshman won his seat by just 6,000 votes last year, and will attend Vance’s event Wednesday. The district includes some 200,000 people enrolled in Medicaid, close to 30% of the district, according to the nonpartisan health research group KFF. The
Bresnahan already faced a difficult re-election. Democrats argue he’s now undercut his own supporters.
“He knows how bad this bill’s going to be for his constituents, and when it came back to the House he voted for it anyway,” said Kobie Christian, a spokesperson for the liberal organization Unrig Our Economy.
The group is running a $1 million digital and television ad campaign hammering Bresnahan. Similar spots are up against Republican Reps. Juan Ciscomani (Ariz.), Tom Kean Jr (N.J.), and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Iowa).
Bresnahan argued the attacks are based on “misinformation” and that he’s working hard to answer questions at home.
“This is a bill designed to help our working class,” he said.
Republicans’ national campaign arm launched its own digital ad Tuesday boasting about the bill.
Stock Sale
Bresnahan touted provisions to cut taxes on tips and overtime and give bigger standard deductions to senior citizens. More broadly, he noted it averted a massive tax increase that would have hit without congressional action and boosts spending for border security.
“The one thing Congressman Bresnahan and Republicans as a whole can’t do is just sit back,” said Vince Galko, a Republican strategist from northeast Pennsylvania. They have to make Democrats “explain why they are opposed to the good things” in the law.
Bresnahan, echoing other Republicans, argues work requirements for Medicaid, a source of much of the savings, won’t affect people who are genuinely eligible. While Medicaid cuts are unpopular, work rules have significant support, polls show.
“We are fully aware of the impacts and the metrics and how it applies to our district, but I also believe that people in northeast Pennsylvania come from a long history of hard work and dedication,” Bresnahan said. “We don’t think `work’ is a dirty word.”
The cuts aren’t scheduled to take effect until after the 2026 elections, which Republicans hope will blunt any political blowback.
Many nonpartisan analysts, however, warn that even people eligible for Medicaid could lose coverage due to the new tangle of paperwork. And Democrats argue Bresnahan is particularly vulnerable because of his stock sales.
On May 15, a week before the bill initially passed the House by a single vote, public disclosures show Bresnahan sold between $1,000 and $15,000 of stock in Centene, a managed care organization that provides Medicaid coverage in more than two dozen states. The company’s stock fell as the measure advanced, including by roughly 40% after it cleared the Senate. The sale was one of more than 50 trades Bresnahan disclosed for May 15 and represents a small fraction of his portfolio.
Democrats say it shows him enriching himself while cutting aid to constituents.
“Bresnahan lied to voters when he repeatedly promised that he would protect Medicaid,” said Eli Cousin, a spokesperson for House Democrats’ national campaign arm. “We will use his own words, lies, and greed against him to ensure Northeastern Pennsylvanians know Bresnahan has violated the public trust and does not deserve to represent them.”
Bresnahan said the sale, like others, was made by a financial manager and that he only became aware of it in June, almost a month after it happened.
“I literally had to Google what Centene was,” he said. “I never managed, directed, advised anything with my financial advisers.”
Democrats are still searching for a challenger to Bresnahan. But they believe they already have an issue to campaign on.
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