Redistricting War Escalates as California Backs Democratic Map

An intensely partisan war between Republicans and Democrats to reshape House districts before the 2026 midterm elections is gaining momentum after Tuesday’s off year election.

California voters on Tuesday formally approved more Democrat-favoring electoral lines through Proposition 50, a significant breakthrough for Democrats seeking to mitigate the impact of new Republican maps pushed by President Donald Trump. And a strong night for Democrats in Virginia could allow them to redraw lines there to favor Democrats. On top of several other state redistricting efforts underway, the moves only create more uncertainty over which party will win control the House in 2026 and what lawmakers will run.

The California map complicates the re-election bids of Republicans Reps. Doug LaMalfa, Kevin Kiley, David Valadao, and Darrell Issa and also merges large parts of districts held by GOP Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim. It also bolsters some swing-district Democrats.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) shepherded his state’s effort to counteract a new Republican gerrymander in Texas, which ignited an unusual, mid-decade redistricting arms race when the Trump White House successfully lobbied state Republicans to implement a map that could deliver up to five more House seats to the party.

“The entire redistricting world has been turned upside down because of that,” Jeff Wice, a professor at New York Law School, said in an interview.

The state-by-state, district-by-district redistricting battle royale unleashed by Texas and now enveloping California and other states underscores how every seat matters in the campaign for control of the House, where the 219-213 Republican majority is one of the smallest in history. The White House is seeking to redraw more House seats to offset expected 2026 election losses, knowing the sitting president’s party has lost seats in the House in almost every midterm election since World War II.

A Nationwide Fight

California and Texas, the two most populous states and together home to 90 of the 435 House districts, are the dominant combatants in the redistricting donnybrook — but they won’t be alone.

Also, Democrats on Tuesday got a redistricting win in Virginia, where voters maintained Democratic control of the legislature and elected ex-Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) as governor to succeed Glenn Youngkin (R). Virginia Democrats would still need voters to approve a constitutional amendment to allow the legislature to redraw congressional lines and bypass a redistricting commission that the electorate enshrined in an overwhelming vote five years ago. Democrats hold six of 11 House districts in Virginia.

Earlier Tuesday, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D) said he’d create an advisory commission to explore redrawing House lines in his state. But state Senate President Bill Ferguson (D) opposes the effort, saying last week it’s too risky to try to enact an all-Democratic, eight-district map that would target Rep. Andy Harris, the lone Republican in the Maryland congressional delegation.

It’s not clear if Illinois Democrats will enact a new map to supersede an aggressive, 14-3 Democratic gerrymander and target Rep. Darin LaHood (R). New York Democrats can’t redraw lines until the 2028 election. A Democratic-backed lawsuit in a Manhattan court is seeking a redraw of Rep. Nicole Malliotakis’s (R) district in Staten Island and part of Brooklyn, arguing its current configuration dilutes Black and Latino voting strength.

A Utah judge could soon adopt a remedial map that gives Democrats an opening to win one of the state’s four Republican-dominant districts.

“We said it months ago that California would be the beginning, but that there would be a decisive Democratic response throughout America from coast to coast and at all points in between,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told reporters Tuesday.

A GOP Edge

Republicans still have an overall edge in redistricting because they control more state governments than Democrats.

In addition to Texas, GOP governments have enacted new maps in Missouri to oust Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D) and in North Carolina to target swing-district Rep. Don Davis (D). Both maps have been challenged in court, and opponents of the Missouri lines also are trying to collect enough signatures to block the map and force a voter referendum.

In Ohio, the only state required to redraw lines for the 2026 election, a GOP-majority redistricting commission last week unanimously backed a bipartisan compromise that improves Republican odds of picking up the seats of Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D) and Greg Landsman (D) while slightly boosting Rep. Emilia Sykes (D). All three districts remain competitive.

Republican-dominated Florida, the third-largest state, probably will redraw congressional lines sometime next year with the goal of increasing the 20-8 Republican tilt in its House delegation.

Indiana Republican legislators will consider redistricting next month. The White House has been lobbying them to convert a 7-2 Republican map into an 8-1 or 9-0 map that would imperil Rep. Frank Mrvan (D) and possibly Rep. Andre Carson (D).

Kansas Republican leaders fell short of the two-thirds support in both chambers of the legislature to call a special session on redistricting to target Rep. Sharice Davids (D), who represents metropolitan Kansas City. Republicans would also need a two-thirds vote to override an expected veto from Gov. Laura Kelly (D).

A wild card is how and when the Supreme Court rules in a case about a Louisiana congressional map with two Black-majority districts that elected Democrats in the 2024 election. At issue is whether intentionally drawing minority-majority districts violates the Constitution.

If the court decides to overturn or curtail the reach of the Voting Rights Act’s Section 2, it could prompt some Republican legislatures to eliminate Black and Hispanic-majority districts held by Democrats.

“It’s hard to predict what might happen next, but we could see state-by-state, district-by-district fights all the way to 2030 and beyond,” Wice said.