UK Debt Rule May Pose Bigger Challenge in Reeves’ Crunch Budget

The build-up to Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ budget next week has been dominated by speculation about how she will satisfy her main fiscal rule to have taxes cover day-to-day spending. But her pledge to get debt falling may prove trickier to meet.

Two of the country’s top think tanks believe she is more at risk of breaking her secondary rule to reduce debt as a share of GDP in 2029-30, as measured by public-sector net financial liabilities. She looks likely to end up with a slimmer buffer by that metric, they said.

Reeves will increase the fiscal cushion ...