Here’s Where Statehouse Power Could Be Reversed on Election Day

Abortion access could change in Arizona and Michigan. Tax cuts could get to governors’ desks in Minnesota and Maine. Universal mail-in ballot laws could be upended in Nevada.

Political turnover is within reach for out-of-power parties in a handful of states where control of state legislatures was narrowly divided heading into this year’s election.

Those races, which tend to get less attention than top-of-the-ticket statewide contests for governor and U.S. Senate, determine who has the upper hand on state policy. And a lot of them are just too close to forecast.

Louis Jacobson, who follows the statehouses ...