A Roadmap Through Trump’s Tariff Realities and Trade War Drama

Donald Trump’s love of tariffs is as well-known as the incoming US president’s capriciousness.

For everyone from CEOs and mom-and-pop businesses to Wall Street investors and foreign governments, gaming out the path from protectionist campaign rhetoric to policy reality is proving tough, leaving the outlook fraught with uncertainty.

Bloomberg Economics has mapped out a plausible scenario for what lies ahead. It’s admittedly a plot sketched without a high degree of confidence given the unpredictability of Trump himself.

Shaped by conversations with officials who helped deliver Trump’s first-term trade policies, an understanding of how the battle plans were constructed, and an ...