Health Tax Credits in Shutdown Row Hit Trump’s Florida Backyard

Florida is at the center of the fight over enhanced Obamacare-era tax credits that’s spurred the longest government shutdown in US history.

The state’s unique dependency on the premium credits has forced lawmakers in both parties to balance their desire to extend the expanded subsidies with their aversion to ceding political ground.

Senate Democrats have repeatedly blocked legislation from the GOP-controlled House to extend government funding, which expired over a month ago. At issue is extension of a Biden-era increase to a tax credit subsidizing insurance plans purchased on exchanges created by then-President Barack Obama’s health care law.

Rep. Darren Soto (D-Fla.), who represents an Orlando-based district where KFF says nearly a third of the population gets insurance from the Obamacare marketplace, endorsed a bipartisan proposal from fellow members of the Problem Solvers Caucus to temporarily extend the increase while capping benefits for low-six-figure earners. It’s unclear whether his party’s leadership supports the plan.

“It’s not what I would want, ideally,” Soto said in an interview at an Orlando food bank on Tuesday. “But we need a deal over anything else that is going to keep these ACA credits in place for the vast majority of Americans.”

The ten House districts with the highest share of Obamacare marketplace enrollees are in Florida, according to KFF. The preponderance of Florida’s early retirees on Affordable Care Act plans in a state that opted out of expanding Medicaid means congressional districts represented by members of both parties face the specter of particularly high premium hikes next year without action.

“You’re ground zero for absorbing the pain from the Republican cut,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) told Floridians at an event at an SEIU office in Miami on Monday.

Democrats wonder whether the premium spikes this year could boost their chances of clawing back political support in the one-time swing state that President Donald Trump carried three times and counts as his home.

It’s “no accident” Senate Democrats went to Trump’s “backyard” to highlight the plight of families dependent on the credits, Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.), a tax writer, said at the Miami event. “Everybody here today is showing with your presence, in your power, your strength, that you understand we have the strength to do something about this.”

Polling last month of likely voters in next year’s Senate race by the Tyson Group, led by a former senior adviser to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), found candidate positions on the credits will significantly factor into their support. Neither incumbent Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.) nor Jennifer Jenkins, a former Brevard County school board member running for the Democratic nomination, are well known to voters.

“A huge portion of this election” hinges on the credits’ fate, Jenkins said in an interview at a coffee shop in downtown Melbourne on Tuesday. “It’s human nature that you don’t fully grasp the ramifications of things until it impacts you directly or someone you know.”

GOP Split

Florida’s Republican delegation has been split on how to respond to the pending enhanced credit expiration, balancing their increasingly conservative electorate with the looming impact of premium increases.

Republican co-sponsors of a one-year extension bill (H.R. 5145) include Florida Reps. Carlos Giménez, Maria Elvira Salazar, and Cory Mills. Democrats hope to unseat Salazar and Mills in next year’s mid-term elections.

Others are more skeptical. Freshman Rep. Mike Haridopolos (R-Fla.) pointed to research by the GOP-aligned Paragon Health Institute showing 40 percent of ACA enrollees in low-to moderately-priced Obamacare plans didn’t submit any medical claims last year.

“We do want to provide low-cost health care, of course, for everyone,” he told reporters in Washington last month. “But we also want to make sure that when the taxpayers are paying for it, people are actually utilizing the services.”

The Florida delegation also has arch conservatives like Rep. Randy Fine (R-Fla.), who blasted Democrats on a recent telephone town hall for wanting to subsidize health insurance for undocumented immigrants. They already don’t qualify for the tax credits.

Health care restrictions in Republicans’ signature tax law have emerged as an area of friction in the shutdown fight. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated these restrictions reduced legal immigrants’ eligibility for the premium tax credit.