Trump’s Promised Big Tax Refunds Likely to Be Modest for Many

December 15, 2025, 12:00 PM UTC

President Donald Trump promised Americans big tax refunds next year. Many filers — particularly those who could most use the financial boost — may soon be disappointed.

“Your sort of typical W-2 worker with no kids will see very little change year-over-year,” said Adam Michel, director of tax policy studies at the libertarian Cato Institute. He estimates slightly more than half of taxpayers fall into that group.

That disconnect between Trump’s public promises and the reality for many Americans threatens to create a political liability for congressional Republicans ahead of midterm elections focused squarely on voters’ concerns about affordability. ...

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