US Tariff Revenue Gains Seen as Undercut by Declining Trade

President Donald Trump’s tariff increases will cause a slump in US trade volumes that’s likely to limit the scope of the extra revenue the federal government can expect to reel in, new projections show.

All of the tariffs Trump has imposed, along with those he has threatened, since January would generate around $300 billion in annual revenue on average, according to an analysis from Bloomberg Economics. That’s at the low end of the range, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent having floated a figure of up to $600 billion.

The lower figure reflects expectations for a sharp downturn in trade. ...