No Fed Cuts Until September Despite Rising Risks, Economists Say

Economists see a darkening outlook for the US economy but are sticking by projections for two interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.

Three-quarters of economists surveyed by Bloomberg now predict a recession, or a zero-growth scenario that narrowly avoids a recession, in the next 12 months, up from 26% in March. Despite that shift, the median estimate of respondents still saw the Fed lowering its benchmark lending rate only twice this year, with quarter-point cuts in September and December. Policymakers next meet May 6-7.

The new forecasts come after President Donald Trump imposed new tariffs on imported ...