WTO Sees Full Impact of US Tariffs Hitting Trade Growth in 2026

The growth of global goods trade is expected to slow sharply next year after a surprisingly resilient first half of 2025, reflecting a delayed drag on international commerce from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the World Trade Organization said.

Merchandise trade volumes are forecast to rise 2.4% this year, the Geneva-based forum said in a report Tuesday — much faster than the 0.9% growth it predicted in August. The scale of that upgrade was almost matched by the downgrade for 2026: A 0.5% rise is now expected, versus the 1.8% advance seen two months ago.

Those diverging outlooks ...