Does the Debt Impact of Trump’s Tax Bill Matter?: QuickTake

July 8, 2025, 4:32 PM UTC

The federal budget deficit is back in the spotlight after the Republican-controlled Congress approved a massive tax and spending package on July 3 aimed at realizing President Donald Trump’s domestic agenda. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the measure will add $3.4 trillion to the national debt over a decade. Already, the deficit has been gradually widening over the last decade or so, bucking the typical pattern of narrowing in times of economic expansion.

Conventional wisdom holds that ever-increasing debt relative to gross domestic product is unsustainable, though another line of argument holds that fears about the hole the ...

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