Reasons for Optimism About the 2026 Economy: Allison Schrager

One year ago, businesses — especially CEOs — were optimistic about the US economy in 2025, expecting lower taxes and more market-friendly policies from incoming President Donald Trump. Then came April 2, Liberation Day. The market fell, uncertainty rose, and affordability became a more acute concern. Meanwhile, the labor market continued to weaken, as immigration restrictions led to a slower-growing workforce and labor shortages in some sectors.

Nonetheless, the US economy persisted. As the end of the year approaches, the market is up more than 15%, and GDP growth in the third quarter was an unexpectedly robust 4.3%. ...