Republican Budget Bill Is a Fiscal Mirage: Ernie Tedeschi

The Congressional Budget Office’s latest analyses of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, or OBBBA, has sparked a debate over how to measure future deficits. But this squabble over so-called baselines distracts from the legislation’s dangerous fiscal trajectory.

Beneath the surface of the competing arguments lies a sobering reality, which is that this bill risks accelerating America’s debt crisis, especially if the economic tailwinds CBO expects fail to materialize.

The choice of baseline and the inclusion of projected tariff revenue can muddy the assessment of the bill’s fiscal effects. CBO estimates the bill would add $2.4 trillion to primary (non-interest) ...