Democrats Bank on Summer Recruits to Topple GOP Senate Majority

Senate Democrats return to Washington next week with a bit more hope in their quest to win back the majority after luring top candidates to a pair of competitive races.

Democrats locked down their most-wanted recruits in two red-held seats over the past month, with former Sen. Sherrod Brown announcing a comeback bid in Ohio and former Gov. Roy Cooper launching a campaign for the open seat in North Carolina.

With Republicans leading the Senate 53-47, Democrats need a raft of blue-chip recruits in GOP-friendly states to have a chance at retaking control. Republicans are defending 22 seats next year compared with 13 for Democrats, but all but two of the Republican seats are in states Donald Trump won by at least 10 percentage points in 2024.

Democrats are banking on a more favorable political environment in 2026 than 2024, when Trump returned to power and ushered in a GOP majority. Party leaders say candidates like Cooper and Brown have a record of outperforming Democratic presidential candidates.

“We are recruiting great candidates, much better than we ever thought,” said Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).

The boost for Democrats coincides with some hits to the GOP with a forced retirement in North Carolina, a messy primary in Texas, and some recruitment setbacks. Republicans say they’re still well-positioned to keep the majority.

Recruiting Wins

Brown’s decision to try for a comeback against Sen. Jon Husted in the deepening red Buckeye State shifted the race’s Cook Political Report rating from “Likely” to “Lean” Republican. Brown lost to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) by 4 points last year but outperformed Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, who lost Ohio to Trump by 11 points.

Brown, former Senate Banking chair, is likely to face a similar challenge to last cycle when the cryptocurrency industry spent big to defeat him. The National Republican Senatorial Committee said in a memo Democrats are “desperate” for pushing Brown again.

“We beat him once. We’ll beat him again,” NRSC Chairman Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) said. Not since 1988 has a defeated ex-senator returned to serve again.

In North Carolina, Sen. Thom Tillis (R) decided against running for re-election after Trump berated him for voting against advancing his megabill. Trump-endorsed Michael Whatley, outgoing chairman of the RNC, is expected to face off against popular Cooper. Both sides project confidence.

Targeting Red Seats

Flipping North Carolina and Ohio is likely a necessary but not sufficient condition for majority-minded Democrats, who need a few more states in play.

A top but long-elusive target is Maine, where Sen. Susan Collins is the only Republican senator from a state Trump didn’t win in 2024. Collins, 72, seeking a sixth term, has a history of winning crossover support, including a 9-point win in 2020 over a well-funded Democratic officeholder.

Term-limited Gov. Janet Mills (D) would be a formidable opponent, though she may not be interested in starting a Senate career at 79. Announced Democrats include Graham Platner, a 40-year-old oyster farmer and Marine veteran who’s pitching himself as a different kind of candidate.

“We will keep losing and losing and losing in our attempts to replace her as long as we keep running the same kinds of candidates and the same kinds of campaigns,” said Platner, who served in Iraq and Afghanistan and has never run for elected office.

Democrats are looking to put into contention a quartet of states that favored Trump by 13 to 14 points in 2024 but may be more competitive now — Alaska, Texas, Iowa and Florida.

In Alaska, Democrats are eyeing ex-Rep. Mary Peltola to challenge Sen. Dan Sullivan (R). Although she hasn’t committed, polling shows Peltola competitive.

In Iowa, a former swing state that’s trended Republican during Trump years, four Democrats announced against Sen. Joni Ernst, who hasn’t formally declared if she’ll run. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) is a likely candidate if Ernst retires. The most recent Democratic entrant is state Rep. Josh Turek, a Paralympic gold medalist who represents a pro-Trump district.

Democrats lack a top-flight candidate in Florida, another GOP-trending state where appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) is favored to win a special election and complete the term won in 2022 by Marco Rubio (R), who resigned to become secretary of state.

Messy Primaries

In Texas, Democrats hope to capitalize on a fractious Republican primary between Sen. John Cornyn, who’s supported by GOP leadership, and state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who’s running as a more combative conservative.

A win by Paxton, who’s weathered scandals, could put Texas in reach of Democrats, who last won a statewide election in 1994. Former Rep. Colin Allred, who lost to Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in 2024, is running. The field may include state Rep. James Talarico, who’s created buzz from national media appearances.

Democrats would need to pick off four Republican seats even if they hold all their seats, including Georgia and Michigan, which favored Trump in 2024.

In Georgia, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) began July with $15.5 million cash-on-hand, the most of any at-risk senator and money he can use to amass “the most massive turnout effort in the history of Georgia politics,” as the senator vowed in an interview early this year.

After Republicans couldn’t convince Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp to run, a crowded GOP primary materialized with former college football coach Derek Dooley, who’s Kemp’s preferred candidate, and Reps. Mike Collins and Buddy Carter.

In Michigan, Sen. Gary Peters’ retirement spurred Democrats’ first competitive Senate primary since 1994. Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and progressive Abdul El-Sayed are the top contenders. Meanwhile, Republicans rallied around former Rep. Mike Rogers, who lost a close race to Democrat Sen. Elissa Slotkin last November.

Democrats are defending open seats in mildly Democratic New Hampshire and Minnesota, though they have stronger candidates.