SALT Vote Gives New York, California GOP Last Chance for Win

A test vote in the House Wednesday on whether to advance legislation to double the state-and-local tax deduction cap is SALT Republicans’ last chance for a win for a while.

Lawmakers will vote in a procedural step on whether to allow consideration of Rep. Mike Lawler‘s (R-N.Y.) bill to raise the SALT cap for some joint filers to $20,000 for the 2023 tax year.

New York and California Republicans have been seeking to hike the limit the GOP enacted in its 2017 tax law, before facing voters again this fall. Many are in districts the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates as “toss-ups,” and their election prospects may seem tougher after Tom Suozzi, a former Democratic representative, won a special election in New York’s 3rd Congressional District Tuesday.

Taking action on SALT will give a resume boost to those Republicans, particularly as Democrats hammer the GOP as those responsible for the limit in the first place.

“If a win isn’t delivered, then what are they doing?” said Zack Carroll, a partner at Liftoff Campaigns who’s assisting with a Democratic campaign in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District. “Especially since Trump Republicans are the original reason for the SALT cap.”

Republicans, too, blame Democrats for failing to raise or eliminate the limit when they controlled Congress. Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) noted Tuesday night that Suozzi didn’t fulfill that promise either when he was previously in the House.

Suozzi’s bill eliminating the SALT marriage penalty passed the House in 2019. Suozzi also fought for a provision hiking the restriction to $80,000 to be included in a larger House package in 2021. Neither became law.

“I don’t know why he would be more helpful this time around,” LaLota said.

Even if the test vote fails on Wednesday, Republicans can still count that as a win, said Jim McLaughlin, a New York Republican strategist.

“No matter what happens, it’s a win-win for Republicans like Lawler,” McLaughlin said, “because they’re fighting for what is a priority issue and what voters care about.”

Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) said despite Suozzi’s victory, voters will blame Democrats for high taxes in their states.

“The people of New York know that they have high state and local taxes because of the Democrats that run New York,” she said Wednesday. “Whatever relief we can do at the federal level is great but it doesn’t take away that it’s the Democrats’ high property and income taxes that are the cause.”

Even if the legislation advances to a full House vote, hurdles to its ultimate passage remain. Much of the Republican caucus wants to eliminate the deduction altogether, and some progressive Democrats oppose the tax break as a giveaway to the wealthy. Conservative groups Heritage Action and Club for Growth also have urged members to vote against the bill. And senators are less interested in the issue.

It’s unclear whether Democrats who’ve supported efforts to raise or eliminate the SALT cap in the past would support the measure. Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.) called the bill—which only applies to one tax year—a “political ploy.” House Ways and Means Ranking Member Richard Neal (D-Mass.) said Tuesday he’s not sure if any Democrats will vote for the rule allowing the vote to proceed.

“There’s an element that understands that this is camouflage, but they still might embrace it,” Neal said.